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Applied description of market mechanics

Discussion in 'Avabel Game Guides' started by GJO, Dec 26, 2014.

  1. GJO

    GJO Doesn't Hassle the Hoff

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    50 shades of Greed ;)
    An investing approach of making money.

    Note 1: This explanation is based on personal experience, and can not guarantee any results. This approach worked for me, but to make use of it, you'll have to KNOW and UNDERSTAND what you are doing. Simply following this as a guide will not be enough; see what you can learn from it, and how it can help you improve.

    Note 2: this "guide" is mostly for players who can't afford to, or refuse to invest IRL money in this game.

    General pointers:

    Farming efficiently:
    Calculate which is the most proficient method of farming. Keep these factors in mind:
    • Income/time: How much income does each method generate relative to the time you invest in it? Example: you fill your bag on f13 in 20 minutes, fetching you 30k. On f16, you fill your bag in 30 minutes, fetching you 40k. F13 is thus the best, giving 90k/hour, where f16 gives 80k/hour.
    • Expenses/run: Go farming with an alt that consumes few HP/SP potions. This cuts down your expenses. Also keep in mind that using return wings cost you money.
    • Income/dp: If you have the time to use up all your DP, check which dungeon gives you the most money for your DP. A dungeon giving 50k for 15 DP is better than a 75k/25 DP dungeon.

    Buying efficiently:
    • Buy stuff you need when stocks are down.
    • Keep an eye out for bargains.
    • Be patient enough to wait for an item to turn up for a price you like.
    • Buy batches; they are often cheaper than the price/piece. You can resell what you don't need.

    Selling efficiently:
    • Sell your stuff when 'stocks are up.' Prices fluctuate a bit, so sell when the prices are relatively high.
    • Sell crystals 3-4 days after their dungeon day. Supply will be low (most people have consumed/sold their crystals) and demand will be high (they can't wait another 3-4 days to farm their own crystals).
    • Undercut the prices of the competition. Always be the cheapest seller to ensure quick sales. Do it when stocks are up, and you'll always sell fast for lots of cash.
    • Don't steal from yourself. If an item is being sold for 5k, don't undercut it by selling for 4k. 4,8k will do the trick.
    • Use efficient quantities. Sell items in the amounts that people need them, and no more than that.

    Bartering efficiently:
    Stick to your price when you are selling, and stick to your price when you are buying. Simple as that. If the other player turns the deal down, too bad for them. There are thousands of other potential buyers/sellers.

    Build a reputation:
    • Always do honest business. Being a scammer or a ripoff will give you a quick cashgrab, but word will spread and others won't want to do business with you.
    • Help a newbie out. Most common mistake is that the seller sets a trade, and thinks he/she has to fill in the price (and thus sending you money). Saying nothing will land you some free items once, but it's not really fair is it? Furthermore, I have gotten FANTASTIC deals, repeatedly, by doing this.
    • Having a good reputation, players will trade with you again, or send their friends to you to do more business.
     
    Last edited: Dec 26, 2014
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  2. GJO

    GJO Doesn't Hassle the Hoff

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    Section A: before investing.

    A1. Knowledge.
    First off, you'll need to know how the stall works. I'll assume that you know, if not; check the newbie guide (link is below this post).

    - Start with checking the new items that are being posted in the stall. Do an advanced search on collecables and consumables, since those are the item types we'll be focusing on.
    - Keep an eye out for items with higher prices. Anything upward of 5k a piece could be interesting; anything over 20k is definitely worth keeping tabs on. Get a hang of looking for specific items, and sorting them by price so you can see what they are being sold for.
    - Know everything there is to know about these items: what are they used for (evolve/customize gear, synthesize items and/or avatars, level up pets, quests)? In which amounts do people need them?
    - Keep an eye on the prices of these items for a longer time; every time you go to the stall, check the prices.
    This way, you'll learn to see that prices go up and down, which will also prevent you from making wrong investments.
    !!! If you aren't used to keeping tabs on prices, I'd advise you to do this for two weeks before you consider investing. If you can work the stall with your eyes closed, keep tabs for at least 3 days before advancing.


    A2. Pricing (making use of Supply & Demand).
    An item actually isn't "worth" anything. What you can sell it for however, is based on what the buyer is willing to pay for it.

    A2a. Supply: how easy/hard is the product to come by?
    + The more effort it requires to get the item, the lower the supply will be.
    + If people are using the item themselves (and thus not selling it), the lower the supply will be.

    A2b. Demand: how much does the consumer need the product?
    + If you know the use of a product, you'll know who will need them. The more people need them, the higher the demand will be.
    + If you know the use of a product, you'll also know how many they'll need. The more products each buyer needs, the higher the demand will be.

    Combining these factors, you'll squeeze the most money out of items that are low supply/high demand. Let's get a few examples:
    + High supply/low demand: Lizard scales. These are easy to come by. Just kill a few lizards and you'll have them. You only need them for a quest, synthesizing a Lizard Tail avatar (and hardly anyone has the Orbs for it) or for a very small amount of GP. They are so easy to come by that no-one will pay any significant amount for it.
    + High supply/medium demand: Red nuts. These have an insanely high supply; everyone has them, and they are very easy to come by. Creators use red nuts to make HP potions. Other players can also make Red Pills, but hardly anyone does that.
    + High supply/high demand: Sharp/Hard crystals. Everyone needs them, and lots of them. Almost everyone farms them, so there are lots of sellers.
    + Medium supply/High demand: Custom Tools. Almost everyone needs them every once in a while, to customize weapons and to level pets.
    Every buyer needs at least 5 of them, and lots of people getting them from boxes dispose them to save storage space (and will buy 5 once they need them).
    Low supply/High demand: Boss ORBS. These are extremely rare, and are used to create boss avatars, or slotted in gear. While not everyone wants them, the amount of people wanting it is way higher than the amount available.


    A3. Valuing (estimating/calculating what would be the right price for an item).
    Let's say you have no clue what an item is worth, and you have no way of finding out.

    A3a. Estimating
    - Check the criteria in the "choice of product" section to help you determine if this item is potentially worth a lot.
    - Start way high: Try to sell the item for a RIDICULOUS (a price where you think that you'd have to be an idiot to even consider buying it) amount of money. People might buy it, or "the competition" will pave the way to help you sell your item.

    A3b. Calculating
    Let's say you have 50 'Exciting Box 4.' You open them all, and these are the results:
    -10 x items worth 1.5k
    -30 x items worth 5k
    -5 x items worth 10k
    -5 x items worth 150k
    The total value of these items is 965k.
    Based on this information, the actual value of an 'Exciting Box 4' is 965.000/50 = 19.3k.
    So it would be worth opening boxes if you can't sell them above this price.


    A4. Investment funds: efficiently building up money to invest with.
    Depending on the product you'll be investing in, you'll need vaster amounts of money. I'd start with at least 2 million.

    - Efficiently sell valuables, using what you have learned so far to set the prices.
    - Pick up bargains from the stall and resell them immediately (a 25k item being sold for 5k; buy it -> sell it for 25k).
    - Level up a character AND an alt to at least lvl 45-50. Then use all your Dungeon Points to farm crystals on Tuesdays and Thursdays. Crystals sell for roughly 25k (when this was written; always check current prices). You mostly get 3,5 crystals per offline run. 4 runs per 100 DP. Within a day, you could get 11 runs out of each character.
    So a full day of crystal farming yields about 3,5x11x2x25.000 = 1.925.000.
    - Don't buy what you can farm. It's nice that so many people are paying for your crystals, but when you need them, you get them yourself.
    - Postpone investments in gear. You can get to level 50 without buying or evolving gear. Use the items that are dropped, and strengthen lvl 40 3* gear (when it drops) if you get in trouble.
    - Postpone buying avatars. Avatars make you look pretty, but do nothing besides that. You are beautiful just the way you are ;) Furthermore, the avatars you can just afford now, will be way cheap to you in a few weeks.


    A5. Choice of product.
    Now it's time to start focusing on a single product. We are going to dominate its market, and maybe even monopolize it. The goal is to increase its price. This way, you can multiply your initial investment.
    Choose a product based on these criteria:

    - Necessity: the product needs to have high demand to ensure that people will keep buying it when prices go up.
    - Availability: the product needs to require effort to come by. That means going out of your way by going to dungeons, or spending time actively farming on a certain floor.
    - Irreplaceable: the product needs to be irreplaceable. Vario for example, has the same use as Arios, Kundo, Rook, etc, and thus is replaceable.
    - Unsynthable: if you can buy 5 crystal pieces for 2k each, you wouldn't buy crystals for 25k would you? And if Dark Elements are priced at 150k, but Dark Bowls are priced at 1m, no-one will buy the Dark Elements.
    So synthesis gives the prices a 'roof,' meaning the prices can only rise to a certain point.
    - Spinning: if the product can be obtained through gem spins, it's price will drop and also be unstable. Spinners dump the items they don't want for relatively low prices, to get a quick cash grab and make room in their storage.
    For example, Shining Dark Stone 3 should be worth 4 times the price of a Dark bowl, but since you can get them from spins, its price is much lower than that.


    A6. Cash at hand (leverage).
    You'll CONSTANTLY need cash at hand. If you don't have money to invest with, you lose your influence on the prices. So if your starting budget is 2 million, try keeping your funds above 1 million. Don't sell your target product; get income through other items. Best is to use both crystal days to keep replenishing your funds. NEVER EVER EVER go broke.


    A7. Keep it close to the chest:
    - Don't go boasting about your plans. Others will catch on, and they can ruin your plans by interfering.
    - Don't tell anyone about your plans unless they are in on it.
    - Just boast about it when you have already pulled it off ;)
     
    Last edited: Nov 16, 2015
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  3. GJO

    GJO Doesn't Hassle the Hoff

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    Section B: Buying

    B1. Investing (actually buying instead of reading about it ;))
    So now you are going to take the great leap. The goal is to stack up a huge pile of the product, and simply sit on it. You're going to keep pulling them from the market, lowering the supply in the process; meaning the price will go up.

    • Buy batches: check the current going price a piece (or for example with custom tools, per 5). Batches of the product are often cheaper, so buy them and chuck them in your storage. This step will make your funds dry up quickly, so have some income going while you're at it.
    • Increasing the price: you are going to increase the price bit by bit. If the current going price is 25k, buy everything that is below 35k. Keep doing this, and 35k will become the new going price. Repeat this process to 45k, and so forth.
    • Stock up: the above step will lower the supply. You are buying huge amounts of the product, and fewer and fewer sellers will remain. Just keep chucking them into the storage; don't be surprised to have 200+ of them. Your storage can hold up to 999 of them. Just sit on them; payout will come later.
    • Stop buying: Stop buying when you think the highest possible price (that anyone would pay for the product) has been reached.
    • Monopolizing: if you can keep buying until the stall is completely empty, you can attempt to monopolize the item. If the prices of the remaining sellers are too high for your taste, wait for them to disappear (and keep buying anything tolerable). Keep buying to assure you are the only one who can provide the product.


    Section C: before selling
    Now that you have monopolized the product (this will only last for a moment), you have the power to set the new price. This is a HARD, and very important step. Keep these factors in mind:

    C1. The competition:
    • Other players will want a slice of the pie. Buy anyone off who gets in your way, and let the others have their piece.
    • Other sellers will undercut your price, so be prepared for that. To ensure you sell your items, you have to undercut them. So plan 2 steps ahead: 1. Set a ridiculous price. 2. See the competition undercut that price. 3. Undercut the competition.
    • Some players will sell the product for the 'old' price. Buy them off ASAP, otherwise the price will rapidly drop.


    C2. The consumer (who will be buying from you).
    • Most players who buy from you, will be overly rich and/or impatient. They could farm the product, but they'll simply buy it. They don't care about the price, as long as they get what they need.
    • Players who can afford it, but pay a lot of attention, will notice that there is only ONE player who sells the product, and for a ridiculous price. They'll hate you for it, and refuse to buy.


    C3. Selling tactics:
    • Hiding your dominance: Use your alt (or alts) to make it seem like there are multiple sellers. This might make the haters buy from you.
    • Bargain baiting: Make it seem like your price is a bargain. So first, stall the product for a RIDICULOUS price with your alt. Then, use your other character(s) to sell the product for the actual price you want to set.
    • Plan further ahead: there are actually 4 steps to that plan I mentioned earlier: 1. Set a ridiculous price with an alt. 2. Sell for the actual target price with other characters. 3. See the competition undercut you. 4. Undercut the competition.


    Section D: Selling

    D1. Use your selling tactics to start selling.


    D2. Camp the stall.
    Constantly keep an eye on your sales and what others are selling. Prices will gradually drop, so it's key to sell your items as quickly as you can. Keep undercutting the competition. Large bathes sell slower, so sell them a piece (or per amount that people need, like 5 custom tools). Use all the characters you have (since they each have 3 spots to stall items with) and keep swapping through them so they are constantly selling. You don't want to get stuck with hundreds of items, so sell and adapt as quick as you can.
     
    Last edited: Dec 26, 2014
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  4. GJO

    GJO Doesn't Hassle the Hoff

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    Additional notes:
    • Why not avatars? Avatars are a matter of taste and fashion. The constant introductions of new avatars makes it even harder to predict what the prices of avatars will do. Sure, if the prices rise, you can make 50k-200k profit off a single investment, but you could lose a similar amount if prices drop. I don't gamble for big wins, I steadily increase my funds.
    • Stay ahead: Maintain your knowledge. Don't assume you know your prices, check regularly in order to know your prices. When an update comes out, immediately investigate new features. Required items will increase in price. Be aware that the market overreacts: prices will rise to insane heights, but will quickly drop again.
    • Updates: new features can require items. A new emotion quest, the pet system; they increase the prices of the required items.
    • Events: Events can be a fantastic opportunity to make money. If you can be the first to get the event avatar/box, you can set the starting price. Along the way, prices will drop (because the expected supply will increase).
    • After the event, event avatar prices will gradually increase again (since they can no longer be created). Event materials will become worthless (since they can no longer be used to synthesize with). If you can predict (or just gamble, it's not exact science) which items/avatars will be very popular, you can make HUGE amounts off them if you sit on them for 2 months.
    • Keep your ear to the streets: When Summon Raids came out, the Dark Books (material required for summon) were VERY expensive, say 500k-1m? But people hate the Summon Raid, and hardly anyone finds it worth their while. This led to a drop in demand for Dark Books, and they are pretty worthless nowadays. So pay attention: do lots of people like something? Demand will go up. Do they hate it? Demand will go down.
     
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  5. GJO

    GJO Doesn't Hassle the Hoff

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  6. ffej

    ffej Active Member

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    There isn't an option for rating your posts so here you go. DANNNNGGGGG!!!
     
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  7. Toketsu Hikari

    Toketsu Hikari Member

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    ^Lol same dunno what to even rate this post loool.

    But anyway wowzers... feels like I just took an Avabel Economics 101: Avabel Market Mechanics course from Professor GJO lool though a lot more interesting and easier to understand then any normal economics course I've taken xD.
     
    Last edited: Nov 16, 2015
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  8. Taibasa Tsuyou

    Taibasa Tsuyou Otaku Member Staff Member Moderator

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    Looks like I never rated this either... Ö
    I do remember having read this before... maybe before I made an account here on the Forum. xD
    Anyways, if you don't know what to rate try this:
    If 1 post: Winner.
    If, like these posts: in the case I just rated them:
    1 Winner, 1 Like, 1 Informative, 1 Useful~

    Anyways, It sure helps to be patient!! :p
    Like I last did for rather a long time (I think half an year or even longer?).
    I wanted to buy a specefic Avatar because I liked the bubbles and it just fits my own Aco. :3
    The very first tim I saw him on stall was also the most cheap one I ever saw in Stall. Sadly at that time I didn't had enough Gold and Copper Coin Pieces for a Premium Ticket.
    After all those waiting and checking the stall, there was finally one I could buy!! After all those prices between the first and the one I bought the prices were quite high.

    Checking the stalls for prices shouldn't be taking too long since you can short it on price cheap-expensive / expensive-cheap.

    At the Event Avatars.... you got me there. I kind of forgot about I still have some :$
    Never got a right motivation on selling them even though I was intended to sell them after a while. xD
     
    Last edited: Nov 17, 2015
  9. Titanos

    Titanos New Member

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    You might also want to add this : people are greedy and will want to make the best deal possible, and you want to make the most money out of useless junk.
    Sometimes the trick lies in the price : 2999 will feel cheaper than 3000, so I advise doing that with every price you set up.
    I sell 4 weak armour, especially mesh and hard for 2999 and 2799 every 30 minutes, which means a lot of cash since I can even buy that armour for lets say 800 G...
     
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